1. Kyle Harrison records 200 strikeouts
If he makes 30 starts and averages 5 innings a start, he’ll need 1.33 strikeouts per inning to reach 200 strikeouts. That is just under 12 strikeouts per 9, and he averaged 14.6 strikeouts per 9 in the minors. I think the biggest question here is can he make those 30 starts.
2. Logan Webb wins the Cy Young Award
He was already a finalist last year, leading the league in innings pitched with extremely respectable numbers. The defense should be significantly better, plus a full year of Bailey behind the plate. His ERA in 2023 was 3.25, but his expected stats had him around 2.95. If he leads the league in innings again and is able to get his ERA under 3, I think he has a legitimate shot to win it.
3. Camilo Doval gets a stray Cy Young vote
I am in no way saying he wins the Cy Young or will even be close (and honestly I dont think relievers should be). My prediction last year was that he would lead the league in saves - but that was honestly more of a vote of confidence to say how good he was while still somewhat flying under the radar. But then he went and tied for the league lead in saves anyways. So we’re doubling down on our confidence, and he has such a good year that one person puts him like 5th on their ballot.
4. Thairo goes 20-20
He went 14/23 last year and missed some time. 20-20 doesn't seem outrageous, but 25-25 doesn't sound as good and I think 30-30 is out of reach. Prove me wrong, Thairo.
5. Bryce Eldridge ends up as a top 10 prospect in baseball
I’m not the only person that’s really high on Eldridge. Pavs said something like top 50 prospect in baseball, but I think just with graduations and guys falling off the list, this will happen by default (as he's currently around 80 on some lists). Grant Brisbee said top 10, and this is where I’m at. I'm getting Matt Olson vibes.
6. The Giants sneak into a 3rd wild card spot
Last year, 84 wins got it done. The giants won 78 games last year. This team is pretty obviously better. Are they six games better? I think so, and I think we get to enjoy October baseball again (and I'm down for some even year BS).
7. Luciano transitions to the outfield
Part of this was that all the other predictions seemed very rose colored glasses, so I wanted to find something slightly negative without being a doomer (I am a fan after all). In the limited time I’ve seen of Luciano at shortstop I have been underwhelmed. I am not a scout, but all the prospect writers who talk to scouts mostly say the same thing. Maybe if they park him in left field and let him think about hitting instead of clouding his brain with the intricacies of short stop, that the bat will finally come around to match his insane power.
8. Conforto gets traded to open up a spot for matos
Luis Matos put on some much needed strength this offseason. His bat to ball skills are not in question, so hopefully he keeps that as well as adds some power. The Giants don't have an everyday spot for him right now, but I think it’s more a when than an if that he’s back with the big club. They do not want to platoon him, so until an everyday spot opens up, I think he’ll be playing everyday in AAA. That said, he is an injury to any of 4 players away of having an everyday roll, between Lee (who’s hurt right now), Yaz (who has dealt with hamstring injuries and is not young any longer), Conforto (who had some time hurt himself last year), and Soler (who also has his own injury history). Even though Soler is the DH, if he gets hurt they’ll move Conforto to DH and put Matos in the outfield. If everyone is healthy by like May 1st and Matos gets off to a blazing start, I think he’ll force the giants hand.
9. Carson Whisenhunt makes an impact this year
I like to try and pick a rookie that is less obvious to make an impact. Last year I picked Casey Schmitt, which looked pretty brilliant for about 3 weeks. This one seems maybe too easy, but the other prospects I like (Eldridge, Reggie Crawford, Rayner Arias) are a little too far away for me to go out on a limb for. Pretty obvious other names are Landon Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black
10. Jung Hoo Lee leads the league in triples
Good contact guy, good speed, triples alley at his home ball park. Let's get it done!
11. We get our first 30 home run hitter since 2004, breaking one of the two legs of the curse of bonds. The other part of the curse still remains
Because 11 is better than 10. My money is on Soler, which seems like a lock if he can stay healthy.
Bonus
JD Davis has a really good season. He's a good player to have on the roster, he just unfortunately did not fit on the Giants roster once they signed Matt Chapman. Everyone knew this, and every other team knew his salary was not guaranteed, so the Giants had zero leverage when trying to trade him. I think he'll have a solid season for the A's and be a popular trade target at the deadline.
The Giants sign Juan Soto after the 2024 season. I said this in last year's prediction, so just restating it. There’s a reason they’re still under the luxury tax, and why they haven't signed a guy like Snell when he's willing to do a shorter term contract. It’s like the Dodgers did last year knowing they were going after Ohtani, because the penalties for going over the tax are harsher the longer you're there. They need to break this pattern of always being the bridesmaid, and Soto is the perfect player to this front office (and one of the best hitter of our generation). What better way to break the other half of the curse of Bonds than by signing a young free agent to play left field for the foreseeable future. If Luciano does move to the outfield this does create a logjam of outfielders.
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