In 2022, I made some predictions before the 2023 season for the upcoming offseason/season. Let's see how I did!
1. The Giants trade David Villar
This didn't happen, but the logic was sound. The Giants were going into the 2023 season with Villar pencilled in as the everyday third baseman due to a hot September in 2022. I wasn't convinced. Villar wasn't traded, but he struggled to open the season and was hardly seen again. Maybe this prediction was just a season too early.
2. Tyler Rogers has a bounce back year
I'm chalking this up as a win. Rogers had a great first half, so much so that he was once again put in a very rigid 8th inning role. I don't think he should be deployed that way, but this was partially because other relievers that should have taken over this role (ie his twin brother, at least to start the year) didn't have great seasons. There was a point where only Tyler and Camilo Doval were trusted options out of the bullpen, and that's not a great spot to be in. Overall his 2023 was still better than his 2022.
3. The front office swings a three team deal
This obviously didn't happen. I think the Giants need to be creative in filling out the roster. I expect trades prior to the 2024 season, so maybe we finally see some creativity. Here's what I said last year, and it's still mostly true, though I do think they finally make a splash in free agency this offseason:
The Giants’ front office need to make a splash this off-season to acquire some top end talent. We know they don’t like to sign free agents to long deals because of the uncertainty of the end of the contract. I think they get creative to bring someone(s) to San Francisco (see also: David Villar trade)
4. The Giants continue to platoon position players
Maybe this was too obvious, especially since the Giants were unable to obtain top end talent that would allow them to platoon less. All teams platoon, but here's hoping the Giants find a way to platoon at a couple of spots on the roster rather than for a majority of it.
5. The defense significantly improves over 2022
See: Low hanging fruit. The Giants defense was awful in 2022. It improved significantly in 2023, where Statcast had them ranked as 9th in Outs Above Average. Some people will cite the amount of errors, but I don't think that tells the whole story. There's still room to improve, but I think they are trending in the right direction.
6. The giants finish second in the NL west.
SUUHHHHH WIIIIIINGGGG and a miss. This did look pretty good in the first half of the season...
7. One of the prospects makes a debut and has a significant impact
Here's what I wrote last year:
My dark horse bet is Casey Schmitt, who can just straight pick it at third. I think Longo is back, but he doesn’t have the cleanest bill of health over the last few years. If the Villar prediction is true, that makes third base depth relatively thin. He should start the year either at AAA or get a quick promotion from AA, making him a potential mid year promotion candidate if it all goes well.
That sure looked good for about a month! The reasoning was also not great (Longo did not come back, Villar was not traded, and thanks to JD Davis learning how to play third base - corner infield depth was not thin at all). That said, I still really like Schmitt. I hope they don't bring Matt Chapman in because I think Schmitt can do the same things as Chapman can, and not have to worry about locking themselves into a contract for a third baseman on the wrong side of thirty.
Obviously I did not see Patrick Bailey coming, which would have been the better prediction. I'm pretty optimistic about the young core.
8. The Giants move on from Tommy La Stella
Once again: Low hanging fruit.
9. Farhan signs an extension.
Here's what I wrote last year:
2022 wasn’t pretty, especially compared to 2021. But Farhan inherited an aging big league team without a great farm system to support it. I think his 4 year plan turned into a 5 year plan (or maybe even into 6) because of the pandemic year(s), and 2023 is a strong enough showing to get him an extension. In Farhan We Trust
The logic was there. He just signed an extension to line up with Bob Melvin's contract. The owners like him because they're making money and the team has been quasi-competitive. Unless something goes horribly wrong I think Farhan is going to be here for awhile.
10. Donovan Walton is the 2023 version of Yaz, Wade Jr, etc.
This did not age well. Whether that's because he was recovering from shoulder surgery or he wasn't yet ready to be a major league contributor, who's to say.
11. Camilo Doval leads the league in saves.
Doval ended up being tied for the league league in saves at 39 with David Bednar (Emmanuel Clase led the majors in saves at 44). The point in this prediction was not to actually predict his save numbers or where he'd end up, but rather to emphasize how good of a reliever he became in the second half of 2022. His 2023 was incredible - other than a rough stretch in August. People were questioning his pitch selection, but to my amateur eyes he just looked tired and overused. Hopefully someone steps up to take some work to keep him fresh.
Bonus 2025 edition. The Giants finally sign a free agent and break the bank for Soto
I still think the Giants do this. I think they miss out on Shohei, end up with Yamamoto and Lee, and sign Soto next offseason.
7/11 isn't bad! Maybe that means I wasn't bold enough. I better get cracking on this year's version....
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