The 2022 season for the San Francisco Giants fell well short of expectations. Part of that was due to how much they exceeded expectations in 2021, though I don't think anyone would argue that they underperformed even without comparing it to 2021. The Giants are a large market team with a fanbase that expects them to win. Here are some predictions for the upcoming offseason and next season.
1. The Giants trade David Villar
Villar seems to have good opposite field power, which unfortunately won’t play well at Oracle park. They trade him to a team that calls a more traditional hitters park home. This isn't any sort of knock on Villar, and in fact they might be doing his career a favor by getting him out of a park that doesn't fit his skillset.
2. Tyler Rogers has a bounce back year
The uniqueness of Rogers is a bit of a novelty, and he was miscast as a pure late inning setup reliever. With the schedule changing in 2023 to where the giants will play all team across both leagues, Rogers will have more exposure to hitters who have never seen him, and less exposure to facing the same hitters more than a couple times. If he's deployed correctly against the right hitters (instead of pitching the 8th because it's the 8th) and if their defense improves (more on this later), I think he is once again known as the valuable piece of the team that he became in 2020-2021.
3. The front office swings a three team deal
The Giants’ front office need to make a splash this off-season to acquire some top end talent. We know they don’t like to sign free agents to long deals because of the uncertainty of the end of the contract. I think they get creative to bring someone(s) to San Francisco (see also: David Villar trade)
4. The Giants continue to platoon position players
They were extremely successful deploying platoons in 2021. They were much less successful doing so in 2022. Hopefully they acquire a top end position player or two that play everyday (most days), and continue to platoon elsewhere.
5. The defense significantly improves over 2022
Pretty low bar to clear, we know, but it's possible to accomplish this in two ways:
1. The defense was much better in the second half, due to better positioning. They spent the first half collecting data and adjusting to the new baseball.
2. Personnel - they make it a priority to bring in good defenders
6. The giants finish second in the NL west.
The dodgers are still very good, but a wildcard spot is still a win (postseason ball is fun).
7. One of the prospects makes a debut and has a significant impact
Kyle Harrison is the obvious one. Naming a bullpen arm is easiest. My dark horse bet is Casey Schmitt, who can just straight pick it at third. I think Longo is back, but he doesn’t have the cleanest bill of health over the last few years. If the Villar prediction is true, that makes third base depth relatively thin. He should start the year either at AAA or get a quick promotion from AA, making him a potential mid year promotion candidate if it all goes well. (Editors note. This was written on 9/14 before Schmitt was promoted to AAA on 9/24).
8. The Giants move on from Tommy La Stella
They don’t want DH only type players, and the bat hasn’t justified him not being able to play the field.
9. Farhan signs an extension.
2022 wasn’t pretty, especially compared to 2021. But Farhan inherited an aging big league team without a great farm system to support it. I think his 4 year plan turned into a 5 year plan (or maybe even into 6) because of the pandemic year(s), and 2023 is a strong enough showing to get him an extension. In Farhan We Trust
10. Donovan Walton is the 2023 version of Yaz, Wade Jr, etc.
The giants gave up an actual bullpen arm to get him, so they liked something they saw. He’ll have the large side of a platoon. We’ve seen crazier things.
11. Camilo Doval leads the league in saves. Ten sounds better than eleven. Ever since he introduced his sinker, he looks like one of the best relievers in the league.
Bonus 2025 edition. The Giants finally sign a free agent and break the bank for Soto
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